Medium to long term planning is capable of producing insights that can inform policies related to SDGs

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Illustrative linkages between SDGs

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SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

Given the present status and expected future energy demands, it is necessary to plan ahead how the energy resources could be used to meet the demands, in the near and far future.

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Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity has decided to address issues of energy planning including energy supply, distribution and end-use.

Energy security

Environmental protection

Market structures

Incentives or disincentives (e.g., FITs, carbon taxes)

Directives (e.g. measure for efficiency improvements)

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What needs to be done and what will be the costs to supply modern energy sources to remote areas?

What if environmental regulations are made more stringent?

What needs to be done to increase the share of renewable technologies?

Should electricity import be allowed?

Should existing nuclear facilities be closed down?

Can an energy conservation program help in reducing cost of energy supply?

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Complex system including numerous supply chains linking energy resources to final energy demands.

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Complex system including numerous supply chains linking energy resources to final energy demands.

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The complexity of the energy system can be simplified and represented in an organised model structure.

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Explain (very distinct from predict)

Guide data collection

Illuminate core dynamics

Suggest dynamical analogies

Discover new questions

Promote a scientific habit of mind

Bound (bracket) outcomes to plausible ranges

Illuminate core uncertainties.

Offer crisis options in near-real time

Demonstrate tradeoffs / suggest efficiencies

Challenge the robustness of prevailing theory through perturbations

Expose prevailing wisdom as incompatible with available data

Train practitioners

Discipline the policy dialogue

Educate the general public

Reveal the apparently simple (complex) to be complex (simple)

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To summarise…

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Governments/public have qualitative ideas on the future development of the country and its energy system, for example:

Policy goals (e.g. economic development, financial constraints, environmental constraints, energy security, rural development…)

Preferred technology options (e.g. using domestic resources, increasing RES shares…)

Future availability and prices of energy forms…

Public perception: may prefer some technologies over others

Energy systems models provide frameworks to quantitatively assess implications of different energy policy / development options on the energy supply system

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They cannot predict the future

But can help understand future better and stay prepared to take informed decision

They cannot make decisions

The main task of an energy analyst is to evaluate different options and provide clear inputs for decision makers

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Are we really finished when we have got the insights?

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Are we really finished when we have got the insights?

Refine the inputs and analyses involving stakeholders

Make analysis reproducible and build a solid body of research infrastructure

Communicate the results to policy makers

Communicate the results to the civil society

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Define the scope of the Study:

Identify policy issues and questions to be addressed and design the case study accordingly

Map schematically the system:

Identify natural resources, energy carriers and technologies that are used and those that may be used in the country (build a ‘Reference Energy System’)

Define scenarios:

Identify sets of assumptions and prepare the corresponding scenarios to be analyzed

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The scope of the study depends on the energy policy question that you want to address, e.g.:

What policy interventions are necessary to ensure adequate, reliable, and affordable energy supplies?

What needs to be done and what will be the costs to supply modern energy sources to remote areas?

What if environmental regulations are made more stringent?

What needs to be done to increase the share of renewable technologies?

Should electricity import be allowed?

Should the existing nuclear facilities be closed down?

Can energy conservation program help in reducing cost of energy supply?

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Given the scope of the study, what is it important to analyse?

What technologies could play a role under different demand projections?

Are there sub-national, national or regional dimensions which have to be taken into account?

Are there boundaries and limitations in the energy system?

One or more/all energy forms/fuels?

One part of complete energy chain?

…

Do not over complicate! Bigger model usually means more problems!

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To model the initial conditions of the system

To identify the existing competitions in the system

You may represent the energy system in an aggregated fashion. E.g.:

Aggregate transmission and distribution networks

Aggregate some facilities with common features: e.g. one technology to represent a set of existing coal-power plants

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Identify any possible alternatives in the supply system that could be introduced to help meet the policy objectives and targets

Identification of new technologies e.g. combined cycle power plant, e.g., concentrated solar power

Identification of new energy supply sources e.g. coal or gas import options

Identification of "future" technologies

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Identify physical / technical constraints in exploitation of each energy source and technology

Identify limits for each source in terms of quantity and time of supply

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Based on the above, design a Reference Energy System (RES)

RES is a simplified and aggregated graphical representation of the real energy system under analysis;

RES covers not just the present configuration of the energy system, but also possible development paths;

It shows all existing and potential new energy supply chains, from primary energy resources to final demand;

The level of simplification depends on issues to be analysed and data availability;

RES should be a minimum representation of reality needed to answer the policy questions to be addressed;

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Resources, Primary, Secondary,..., Final,…

Coal, oil, gas, wood, nuclear fuel, electricity, heat,…

Which extract, process, convert energy from one to another form or to energy service, transmit and distribute

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Scenario - not prediction, but description of possible future development:

Consistent set of assumptions (reflecting policies and constraints)

Expert judgment/informed guesses how the future may evolve (prices, technologies…)

Model results

Set of alternative scenarios:

Provide alternative development paths

Assist in understanding possible future developments of complex systems

Helps identify robust investment choices and policies

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Specify:

Available technologies

Development of technological parameters (e.g., investment costs, unit size, construction time, efficiency, O&M costs, emission factors, limitation etc.)

Trends of resource availability & costs; import and export prices for fuel

Policy constraints (fixed investment plan, environmental regulation, other socio-economic policies)

Based on:

Literature

Concrete plans and policies

Expert judgments / informed guesses / experience from historic developments

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Examples of scenarios based on policy constraints:

Introducing nuclear beyond 2030

Achieving given share of electricity produced from renewable technologies

Limiting air emissions

Limiting import dependency

…

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Keep focus on objectives (easy to forget)

Consider available human resources and data availability

Define system boundaries and system details accordingly

Keep model as simple as possible

Build gradually

Introduce constraints step by step

Interpret the results

Prepare recommendations

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High disaggregation in certain parts of the system can help in analyzing some policy options

The remaining supply system can be aggregated. E.g.:

High disaggregation at the final and useful levels in order to analyze energy conservation programs

High disaggregation at the secondary level to assess the role of different generation options

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When preparing your study…

Review existing studies

Review socio-economic development plans

Review sectorial policy/plan documents (coal, oil, gas, and renewables …)

Review studies on resource assessments (e.g., technical potential vs. economic potential)

Review environmental regulations

Collect reliable cost estimates

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Prepare summary of the existing energy supply system

Prepare a base scenario

A scenario based on highly likely development path of the energy supply system – often named "Business-as-Usual"

Based on inputs from sub-sectors of energy sector e.g. power sector development plan, gas/oil sector development plan…

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Data collection

Data pre-processing

Model calibration

Electricity demand projections

Primary resources potentials

Existing capacity

Technology costs and characteristics

Country/region specific constraints

Fuel prices

Discretization of demand curves

Regression analyses where projections are not available

Etc…

I.e. set the starting year of the model as a past year for which actual data is available. From this starting point all that follows depends!

Which technologies are phasing out? By when?

What are the optimal investments in new technologies to meet the demand in the future? When is it best to invest?

What are the key generation technologies in the total energy mix?

Which capacities are NOT being utilized? Why?

What costs will the energy system incur?

What needs to be done and what will be the costs to supply modern energy sources to remote areas?

What if environmental regulations are made more stringent?

What needs to be done to increase the share of renewable technologies?

Should the electricity import be allowed?

Should the existing nuclear facilities be closed down?

Can energy conservation program help in reducing cost of energy supply?

Year

Electricity Generation (PJ)

Year

Electricity Generation (PJ)

The energy system is a complicated network of processes and flows

Models are a useful tool to understand the energy system and formulate sound energy policies

Energy models provide insights for energy policies, not numbers

Modelling tools can be categorized into top-down and bottom-up. We will look at one type of bottom-up tools: optimization tools

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Modelling for insights, not numbers - Huntington et al. (1982): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0305048382900020

Categorisation of modelling tools – Herbst et al. (2012): https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2FBF03399363.pdf

Review of different categorisation methods – Müller et al. (2018): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X18300154

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Taliotis, C., Gardumi, F., Shivakumar, A., Sridharan, V., Ramos, E., Beltramo, A., Rogner, H., Howells, M., 2018. Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling, KTH-Desa and OpTIMUS.community.

Available at: (URL). [Access date]

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1493113

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