Introduction Lecture

#Introduction Lecture

This is the introductory lecture to the course

Author: Lorenzo Sani, Will Usher, Francesco Gardumi

Date: 2020-05-19
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categories: module
exclude: true
layout: presentation
author: Hauke Henke
title: 1_1_Intro_Context
tags: ['intro']
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#Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Medium to long term <b>planning</b> is capable of producing insights that can inform policies related to SDGs</div><br>
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#Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Illustrative linkages between SDGs</div><br>
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#Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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<div style=font-size:26.0px><b>SDG 7</b>: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:26.0px>Given the present status and expected future energy demands, it is necessary to <b>plan ahead how the energy resources could be used to meet the demands, in the near and far future</b>.</div><br>
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#Energy policy

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<div style=font-size:14px><b>Energy policy</b> is the manner in which a given entity has decided to address issues of <b>energy planning </b>including <b>energy supply</b>, <b>distribution</b> and <b>end-use</b>. </div><br>
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<div style=font-size:24.0px><b>It includes aspects related to:</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Energy security</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Environmental protection</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Market structures</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Incentives or disincentives (e.g., FITs, carbon taxes)</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Directives (e.g. measure for efficiency improvements)</div><br>
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#Examples of energy policy questions

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<div style=font-size:14px>What needs to be done and what will be the costs to supply modern energy sources to remote areas?  </div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>What if environmental regulations are made more stringent?  </div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>What needs to be done to increase the share of renewable technologies? </div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Should electricity import be allowed? </div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Should existing nuclear facilities be closed down?</div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Can an energy conservation program help in reducing cost of energy supply?</div><br>
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categories: module
exclude: true
layout: presentation
author: Hauke Henke
title: 1_2_Intro_Energy_system
tags: ['intro']
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#Energy system

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Complex system including numerous supply chains linking energy resources to final energy demands.</div><br>
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#Energy system

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Complex system including numerous supply chains linking energy resources to final energy demands.</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:20.0px><b>Final demands</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:20.0px><b>Resources</b></div><br>
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categories: module
exclude: true
layout: presentation
author: Hauke Henke
title: 1_3_Intro_Energy_systems_modelling
tags: ['intro']
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#From reality to a model

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>The complexity of the energy system can be simplified and represented in an organised model structure.</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Resources</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Primary</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Secondary</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Final</b></div><br>
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#Why model?

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#Why model?

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Explain (very distinct from predict)</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Guide data collection</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Illuminate core dynamics</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Suggest dynamical analogies</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Discover new questions</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Promote a scientific habit of mind</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Bound (bracket) outcomes to plausible ranges</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Illuminate core uncertainties.</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Offer crisis options in near-real time</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Demonstrate tradeoffs / suggest efficiencies</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Challenge the robustness of prevailing theory through perturbations</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Expose prevailing wisdom as incompatible with available data</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Train practitioners</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Discipline the policy dialogue</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Educate the general public</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Reveal the apparently simple (complex) to be complex (simple)</div><br>
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#Why model?

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>To summarise…</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:24.0px><b>M</b><b>odelling </b><b>for INSIGHTS, not numbers… (nor answers)</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px><b>Huntington et al. (1982)</b></div><br>
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#Modelling insights

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Governments/public have <b>qualitative</b> ideas on the future development of the country and its energy system, for example:</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Policy  goals (e.g. economic development, financial constraints, environmental constraints, energy security, rural development…)</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Preferred technology options (e.g. using domestic resources, increasing RES shares…)</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Future availability and prices of energy forms…</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Public perception: may prefer some technologies over others</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Energy systems models provide frameworks to <b>quantitatively</b> assess implications of different energy policy / development options on the energy supply system</div><br>
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#Modelling insights

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<div style=font-size:14px>They <b>c</b><b>annot predict</b><b> the</b><b> future</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>But can help understand future better and stay prepared to take informed decision</div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>They <b>c</b><b>annot make decisions</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>The main task of an energy analyst is to evaluate different options and provide clear inputs for decision makers</div><br>
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#Modelling is not everything…

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#Modelling is not everything…

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<div style=font-size:14px>Are we really finished when we have got the insights?</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:14px>Refine the inputs and analyses involving <b>stakeholders</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Make analysis <b>reproducible</b> and build a solid body of <b>research infrastructure</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Communicate the results to <b>policy makers</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Communicate the results to the <b>civil society</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:14px><i>Keep it always transparent, reproducible and sustainable!</i></div><br>
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categories: module
exclude: true
layout: presentation
author: Hauke Henke
title: 1_4_Intro_Developing_case_study
tags: ['intro']
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#Steps for developing a case study

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<div style=font-size:14px>Define the scope of the Study:</div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Identify <b>policy issues</b> and <b>questions</b> to be addressed and design the case study accordingly</div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Map schematically the system: </div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Identify natural resources, energy carriers and technologies <b>that are used </b>and those <b>that may be used </b>in the country (build a ‘Reference Energy System’) </div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Define scenarios:</div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Identify sets of assumptions and prepare the corresponding scenarios to be analyzed</div><br>
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#1. Define the scope of the study

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<div style=font-size:30.0px>The scope of the study depends on the <b>energy policy question </b>that you want to address, e.g.:</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:30.0px>What policy interventions are necessary to ensure adequate, reliable, and affordable energy supplies?</div><br>
<div style=font-size:30.0px>What needs to be done and what will be the costs to supply modern energy sources to remote areas?  </div><br>
<div style=font-size:30.0px>What if environmental regulations are made more stringent?  </div><br>
<div style=font-size:30.0px>What needs to be done to increase the share of renewable technologies? </div><br>
<div style=font-size:30.0px>Should electricity import be allowed? </div><br>
<div style=font-size:30.0px>Should the existing nuclear facilities be closed down?</div><br>
<div style=font-size:30.0px>Can energy conservation program help in reducing cost of energy supply?</div><br>
</div>