1_3_Intro_Energy_systems

#From reality to a model

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>The complexity of the energy system can be simplified and represented in an organised model structure.</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Resources</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Primary</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Secondary</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:22.0px><b>Final</b></div><br>
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#Why model?

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#Why model?

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Explain (very distinct from predict)</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Guide data collection</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Illuminate core dynamics</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Suggest dynamical analogies</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Discover new questions</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Promote a scientific habit of mind</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Bound (bracket) outcomes to plausible ranges</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Illuminate core uncertainties.</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Offer crisis options in near-real time</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Demonstrate tradeoffs / suggest efficiencies</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Challenge the robustness of prevailing theory through perturbations</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Expose prevailing wisdom as incompatible with available data</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Train practitioners</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Discipline the policy dialogue</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Educate the general public</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Reveal the apparently simple (complex) to be complex (simple)</div><br>
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#Why model?

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>To summarise…</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:24.0px><b>M</b><b>odelling </b><b>for INSIGHTS, not numbers… (nor answers)</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px><b>Huntington et al. (1982)</b></div><br>
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#Modelling insights

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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Governments/public have <b>qualitative</b> ideas on the future development of the country and its energy system, for example:</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Policy  goals (e.g. economic development, financial constraints, environmental constraints, energy security, rural development…)</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Preferred technology options (e.g. using domestic resources, increasing RES shares…)</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Future availability and prices of energy forms…</div><br>
<div style=font-size:24.0px>Public perception: may prefer some technologies over others</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:24.0px>Energy systems models provide frameworks to <b>quantitatively</b> assess implications of different energy policy / development options on the energy supply system</div><br>
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#Modelling insights

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<div style=font-size:14px>They <b>c</b><b>annot predict</b><b> the</b><b> future</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>But can help understand future better and stay prepared to take informed decision</div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>They <b>c</b><b>annot make decisions</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>The main task of an energy analyst is to evaluate different options and provide clear inputs for decision makers</div><br>
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#Modelling is not everything…

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#Modelling is not everything…

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<div style=font-size:14px>Are we really finished when we have got the insights?</div><br>
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<div style=font-size:14px>Refine the inputs and analyses involving <b>stakeholders</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Make analysis <b>reproducible</b> and build a solid body of <b>research infrastructure</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Communicate the results to <b>policy makers</b></div><br>
<div style=font-size:14px>Communicate the results to the <b>civil society</b></div><br>
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<div style=font-size:14px><i>Keep it always transparent, reproducible and sustainable!</i></div><br>
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