#Steps for developing a case study <div style='position: absolute; left: 65.99992125984252px; top:144.2444881889764px; width: 828.0000787401575px; height: 346.0412598425197'> <div style=font-size:14px>Define the scope of the Study:</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Identify <b>policy issues</b> and <b>questions</b> to be addressed and design the case study accordingly</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Map schematically the system: </div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Identify natural resources, energy carriers and technologies <b>that are used </b>and those <b>that may be used </b>in the country (build a ‘Reference Energy System’) </div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Define scenarios:</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Identify sets of assumptions and prepare the corresponding scenarios to be analyzed</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #1. Define the scope of the study <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:30.0px>The scope of the study depends on the <b>energy policy question </b>that you want to address, e.g.:</div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px>What policy interventions are necessary to ensure adequate, reliable, and affordable energy supplies?</div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px>What needs to be done and what will be the costs to supply modern energy sources to remote areas? </div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px>What if environmental regulations are made more stringent? </div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px>What needs to be done to increase the share of renewable technologies? </div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px>Should electricity import be allowed? </div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px>Should the existing nuclear facilities be closed down?</div><br> <div style=font-size:30.0px>Can energy conservation program help in reducing cost of energy supply?</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 67.71425196850393px; top:144.2444881889764px; width: 826.285748031496px; height: 341.7555118110236'> <div style=font-size:14px>Given the scope of the study, what is it important to analyse?</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>What technologies could play a role under different demand projections?</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Are there sub-national, national or regional dimensions which have to be taken into account?</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Are there boundaries and limitations in the energy system?</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>One or more/all energy forms/fuels?</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>One part of complete energy chain?</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>…</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Do not over complicate! Bigger model usually means more problems!</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.85708661417323px; top:144.2444881889764px; width: 827.1429133858268px; height: 340.89834645669293'> <div style=font-size:14px>To model the initial conditions of the system </div><br> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>To identify the existing competitions in the system</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>You may represent the energy system in an aggregated fashion. E.g.:</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Aggregate transmission and distribution networks </div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Aggregate some facilities with common features: e.g. one technology to represent a set of existing coal-power plants</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:144.2444881889764px; width: 828.0px; height: 348.61267716535434'> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Identify any possible alternatives in the supply system that could be introduced to help meet the policy objectives and targets </div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Identification of new technologies e.g. combined cycle power plant, e.g., concentrated solar power</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Identification of new energy supply sources e.g. coal or gas import options</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Identification of "future" technologies</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:14px>Identify physical / technical constraints in exploitation of each energy source and technology</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Identify limits for each source in terms of quantity and time of supply</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Based on the above, design a <b>Reference </b><b>Energy</b><b> System (RES)</b></div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>RES is a <b>simplified and aggregated graphical representation </b>of the real energy system under analysis;</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>RES covers <b>not just the present </b>configuration of the energy system, but also possible development paths;</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>It shows <b>all existing and potential new energy supply chains</b>, from primary energy resources to final demand;</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>The level of simplification depends on issues to be analysed and data availability;</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>RES should be a <b>minimum representation of reality</b><b> </b>needed to answer the policy questions to be addressed;</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:24.0px><b>RES consists of: </b></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px><b>Energy Levels</b></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Resources, Primary, Secondary,..., Final,…</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px><i>(extracted from resources, processed, converted, transmitted, distributed, …)</i></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px><b>Energy carriers / commodities </b></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Coal, oil, gas, wood, nuclear fuel, electricity, heat,…</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px><b>Technologies</b></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Which extract, process, convert energy from one to another form or to energy service, transmit and distribute</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 126.00007874015748px; top:126.83874015748032px'><img src=/teaching_kit/assets/img/1_4_Intro_Developing_case_study/1_image.jpg width=694.2856692913385px height=361.7143307086614px /></div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #2. Map schematically the system <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 210.71244094488188px; top:140.52409448818898px; width: 96.65755905511811px; height: 29.081259842519685'> <div style=font-size:14px><b>Resources</b></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 298.1011023622047px; top:140.11181102362204px; width: 96.65755905511811px; height: 29.081259842519685'> <div style=font-size:14px><b>Primary</b></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 424.5px; top:140.27622047244094px; width: 96.65755905511811px; height: 29.081259842519685'> <div style=font-size:14px><b>Secondary</b></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 614.0338582677165px; top:140.44062992125984px; width: 96.65755905511811px; height: 29.081259842519685'> <div style=font-size:14px><b>Final</b></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 244.0567716535433px; top:168.76338582677167px'><img src=/teaching_kit/assets/img/1_4_Intro_Developing_case_study/2_image.png width=424.87346456692916px height=322.46094488188976px /></div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #3. Define scenarios <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Scenario - <b>not prediction</b>, but <b>description</b> of possible future development:</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Consistent set of assumptions (reflecting policies and constraints)</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Expert judgment/informed guesses how the future may evolve (prices, technologies…)</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Model results</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Set of alternative scenarios:</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Provide alternative development paths</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Assist in understanding possible future developments of complex systems</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Helps identify robust investment choices and policies</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #3. Define scenarios <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:14px>Specify:</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Available technologies</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Development of technological parameters (e.g., investment costs, unit size, construction time, efficiency, O&M costs, emission factors, limitation etc.)</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Trends of resource availability & costs; import and export prices for fuel</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Policy constraints (fixed investment plan, environmental regulation, other socio-economic policies)</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Based on:</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Literature</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Concrete plans and policies</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Expert judgments / informed guesses / experience from historic developments</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #3. Define scenarios <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Examples of scenarios based on <b>policy constraints</b>:</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Introducing nuclear beyond 2030</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Achieving given share of electricity produced from renewable technologies</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Limiting air emissions</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>Limiting import dependency</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px>…</div><br> <div style=font-size:24.0px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #General recommendations <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:14px>Keep focus on objectives (easy to forget)</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Consider available human resources and data availability</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Define system boundaries and system details accordingly </div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Keep model as simple as possible</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Build gradually</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Introduce constraints step by step</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Interpret the results</div><br> <div style=font-size:14px>Prepare recommendations</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #General recommendations <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:143.99992125984252px; width: 828.0px; height: 341.5813385826772'> <div style=font-size:26.0px>High disaggregation in certain parts of the system can help in analyzing some policy options</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>The remaining supply system can be aggregated. E.g.:</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>High disaggregation at the final and useful levels in order to analyze energy conservation programs </div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>High disaggregation at the secondary level to assess the role of different generation options</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #General recommendations <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:26.0px>When preparing your study…</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px></div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Review existing studies </div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Review socio-economic development plans</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Review sectorial policy/plan documents (coal, oil, gas, and renewables …)</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Review studies on resource assessments (e.g., technical potential vs. economic potential)</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Review environmental regulations</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Collect reliable cost estimates</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div> --- #General recommendations <div style='position: absolute; left: 678.0px; top:500.5px; width: 216.0px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px></div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:127.25582677165355px; width: 828.0px; height: 358.3255118110236'> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Prepare summary of the existing energy supply system</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Prepare a base scenario</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>A scenario based on highly likely development path of the energy supply system – often named "Business-as-Usual"</div><br> <div style=font-size:26.0px>Based on inputs from sub-sectors of energy sector e.g. power sector development plan, gas/oil sector development plan…</div><br> </div> <div style='position: absolute; left: 66.0px; top:500.5px; width: 93.6px; height: 28.75'> <div style=font-size:14px>03/2019</div><br> </div>